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> 1800 surplus Physics PhD's

Do you have better data than this?:

"The physics PhD classes of 2007 and 2008 consisted of 1,460 and 1,499 PhDs, respectively. We received post-degree information on 54% of these degree recipients." ... resulting in 4% unemployed initially. Including the 7% temporarily employed that's around 150 excess Physics Phd's in 2008.

http://www.aip.org/statistics/trends/reports/phdinitial.pdf



Not a physicist. But the fact that they only got post-degree information from 54% worries me, because those who are unemployed are probably less likely to answer a survey like this.


This implies that physics PhDs are interchangeable.




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