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My money is on #4:

4) The fraction of post-human civilizations that can build a simulation of a human-level civilization is very close to zero.

Simulating a human brain is many orders of magnitude beyond the capability of present-day computers, and Moore's Law isn't likely to continue forever. It is my belief that all of humanity, or even a single human, is much too complicated to be simulated by any current or future computer.



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