Or bottlenecked by data availability just like we humans are. Nothing will be exponential if a loop in the real world of science and engineering is involved.
Aren't we bottlenecked by not having any "prior art", as in not having reverse engineered any thinking machine like even a fly's brain? We can't even agree on a definition of consciousness and still don't understand the brain or how it works (to the extent that reverse engineering it can tell us something).
Right but for self improving AI, training new models does have a real world bottleneck: energy and hardware. (Even if the data bottleneck is solved too)