Are you sure? This was my reasoning when I bought a Nexus S in early 2011 just after it was released. It came with Gingerbread. Later, at the end of the year, they released the ICS update, and then subsequently was blocked. One of my friends got it, but I never got it (until I downloaded the ROM from somewhere and manually updated). The official line was that this was due to poor battery backup, but I felt the battery backup time improved after the update. Eventually I ended up selling it for 100$ and buying a iPhone 4s.
Clearly, all hardware manufacturers have an incentive to not give updates in order to compel people to buy their latest devices. It's just that Apple plays a slightly different game by giving updates, which make your device slower and slower with every upgrade until about 18-24 months later, you just fork out cash to buy their latest device.
Unless the carrier blocks the update from going through. It took two months without a word from Verizon before my Galaxy Nexus finally got the Jellybean update, behind all the other Nexus phones.
At some point I imagine Verizon will simply stop supporting the phone, and the developer site will point to the last, 'carrier-blessed' OTA Android release.
If I can't trust a Nexus device on this platform, what can I trust?
Only way to assure future updates is to buy an unlocked device directly from Google.
I bought an AT&T Nexus S from Best Buy for $49 with a 2 year contract. It did not receive updates from Google even though it had a Google logo on the back and I had to update manually by downloading from the device image download link mentioned above. I have a Galaxy Nexus now that I bought thru Google, it updated to the latest point release as soon as I turned it on. As long as device gets purchased with a contract at a subsidized price, don't expect updates to get to you over the air.
> Only way to assure future updates is to buy an unlocked device directly from Google.
At least in the USA that's often a sucker move. You pay full price for the phone, but still end up paying a higher monthly fee to cover the subsidized handset you didn't take.
A couple carriers do offer BYO handset pricing. But if you want to stick with a big carrier like Verizon then the phones Google sells directly are effectively coming at an extremely hefty premium.
Clearly, all hardware manufacturers have an incentive to not give updates in order to compel people to buy their latest devices. It's just that Apple plays a slightly different game by giving updates, which make your device slower and slower with every upgrade until about 18-24 months later, you just fork out cash to buy their latest device.